Bears / shorts have the upper hand, with SHFE lead prices rising first and then falling during the day [Brief Commentary on Lead Futures]

SMM, May 19, 2025

The most-traded SHFE lead 2506 contract opened at 16,925 yuan/mt during the day. It rose slightly in early trading, touching a high of 16,985 yuan/mt. However, due to the lingering uncertainties in tariff negotiations and the sluggish spot trades of domestic lead ingots, bearish sentiment prevailed. In the afternoon, SHFE lead prices fluctuated downward, reaching a low of 16,835 yuan/mt at the close, and eventually closed at 16,860 yuan/mt, down 0.06%, with an open interest of 27,388. Recently, macro sentiment has been unstable, exerting a significant impact on non-ferrous metal prices. Additionally, the import window for crude lead has opened to some extent, with some producers having purchased corresponding supplies. Given the limited production enthusiasm of downstream battery producers, caution is advised regarding the drag on lead prices from potential inventory buildup pressure in the lead ingot market.

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